Columnist Richard Fein: Donald Trump as peacemaker?

Richard Fein

Richard Fein

By RICHARD FEIN

Published: 11-25-2024 8:01 AM

Modified: 11-25-2024 9:00 AM


Like many of our fellow Americans I am appalled and frightened by the recent election of Donald Trump to be our next president. That said, during the campaign Trump said many times that he wants a number of international conflicts to end. One of these is Israel/Gaza now being waged as the Israel/Hamas war. Today’s column will focus on ending that conflict . By “ending,” I mean a long-term cessation of armed hostilities, not necessarily a written treaty leading to a permanent peace.

Several things need to happen: Israel must cease attacks in Gaza, stop obstructing the delivery of humanitarian supplies and commit to withdrawing completely from Gaza when the situation stabilizes. Hamas will need to completely end its rocket attacks against Israel and shooting at Israeli soldiers, stop hijacking humanitarian supplies meant for desperate Palestinians and free the hostages it is holding .

President-elect Trump may try to resolve at least the Gaza aspect of the Israel/Gaza conflict. Under the right circumstances he may succeed. Trump has an enormous ego. He has publicly advocated for himself to be nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize. Ending the war in Gaza would in fact be a notable achievement. Trump could also point to his success in bringing about the Abraham Accords through which diplomatic relations were established between Israel and a number of Arab countries. An extra incentive for Trump would be this: He would be successful in something that President Joe Biden failed to do.

To venture a bit beyond the scope of this column Trump may also stop Israel from its plan to annex the West Bank. It’s worth noting that Trump’s ”Peace to Prosperity” plan (aka Deal of the Century) did include a Palestinian state, albeit a truncated one under conditions no Palestinian could accept. However, Trump could build on that plan to propose a viable State of Palestine. Trump would do this because it is a precondition for Saudi Arabia to establish diplomatic relations with Israel and a necessary component of a broader Middle East peace. Were all that to happen Trump could legitimately be thought of as a peacemaker.

How can this be achieved? Like many world leaders, Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, doesn’t want to antagonize Trump. President Trump has the power in his hands to offer Netanyahu a deal he can’t refuse. For example: “Bibi, right now Israel receives $3.8 billion annually in military assistance for free, but that agreement expires in 2026. For the current wars the U.S. has provided $14 billion dollars in arms, moved substantial naval and air assets to the Persian Gulf and eastern Mediterranean and helped Israel shoot down missiles fired against it from Iran. All that will end if you don’t do what I tell you. It is also possible that I will recognize a State of Palestine as 143 countries throughout the world have done. By the way, the United States could stop vetoing Security Council resolutions that are hostile to Israel’s interests.” Confronted by the end of the military and diplomatic aid from the U.S. that are critical to Israel’s survival, Netanyahu would be inclined to say yes.

There could be sweeteners to help Netanyahu swallow Trump’s demands. The possibility of diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia would be one of them. Dealing with Israel’s mortal enemy, Iran, could be another. Trump could tell Netanyahu: “If Iran continues to attack you, Israel will have my permission to bomb Iran’s nuclear weapons sites.”

Netanyahu is also confronting numerous domestic problems. The defense minister he recently fired, Yoav Gallant, has said that there is no security reason for Israel to remain in Gaza. The economy is in terrible shape, taxes are going up and social services are being cut back. About half of Israel’s reserve soldiers are refusing to report to their units. A forever war in Gaza is simply unsustainable , especially when Israel is fighting its enemies on several other fronts.

Peace would require that the other side also agrees. Hamas’ declared goal is the destruction of Israel. However its army has been destroyed, only small guerrilla units are capable of fighting and Hamas is able to fire only a limited number of rockets into Israel. A reconstituted Palestinian Authority, with international recognition and assistance, may be able to govern Gaza. It could quietly promise Hamas an unofficial role in Gaza’s future. Under those circumstances it would be in Hamas’ interest to release the Israeli hostages it is holding and agree to a cessation of armed hostilities.

If Trump uses the power he has wisely and if the other necessary factors I indicated fall into place, there may be an end to the war in Gaza. The improbable is still possible and the unlikely can become reality.

Richard Fein holds a master of arts degree in political science and an MBA in economics. He can be reached at columnist@gazettenet.com.