As the calendar flips from January to February, it’s now officially time to say that playoff basketball will be played this month. The race to the postseason is always hottest during the second month of the year, and that’s again the case in 2024 with several teams fighting for a spot in the big dance.

Some teams in Hampshire County have safely qualified for the tournament while others already know the harsh reality about their playoff hopes. But there are a handful of teams right in the middle, hoping to do enough over the next two weeks to put the bow on a strong playoff resume.

To qualify for the MIAA state tournament, a team must either win 10 games or finish inside the MIAA’s top 32, regardless of record. Below is a rundown of a handful of local squads navigating the tightrope that is the bubble.

Note: the listed ranking for each team is per the MIAA website, which was last updated on Tuesday, Jan. 30.Orioles, Vikings eyeing 10 wins

Both the Belchertown and Smith Vocational boys teams are young groups with big playoff aspirations. The Orioles sit at 7-7 and are currently No. 32 in Division 3, and the Vikings are 6-7 but check in down at No. 67 in Division 4.

These two teams are in different situations, but they both could benefit from the same goal – reaching the 10-win threshold.

Now, because Belchertown is, for now, the last team guaranteed to be in the field regardless of record at No. 32, it technically wouldn’t need to win 10 games to get in. However, head coach Matt Stenuis would love to lock in his team’s spot with 10 wins anyway. The Orioles are on a three-game winning streak and have won four of their last five. 

Belchertown does have a very tough remaining schedule, which, again, could bode well for its ranking given it holds a lot of weight to play tougher teams – especially at this point in the season. The Orioles play Tantasqua (No. 17 in D3), Agawam (No. 16 in D2) and East Longmeadow (7-6 record in D2) in their next three games.

For the Vikings (winners of five of their last seven), because they sit so low at No. 67, they need to notch 10 wins in order to get in – they don’t have the same luxury as Belchertown. Smith Voc’s remaining games – two coming against teams it already beat earlier in the season – are certainly ones head coach Akara Holder knows his team is capable of winning.

This is an absolutely crucial stretch of the season for the streaking Orioles and Vikings.

Division 2 bubble race heating up

In D2, the teams currently ranked 30-37 are separated by less than one point in the MIAA power ratings, which determines the rankings. Three of those eight teams are very likely to finish with records below .500, which means the Northampton (No. 28, 8-7) and Amherst (No. 36, 7-7) boys are in good spots heading into the final stretch of the regular season.

The Blue Devils should make it either way (whether they finish above .500 or not) as long as they avoid a bad loss down the stretch, which considering their difficult schedule (they play two top 20 teams in D2, one of them twice, and the No. 20 team in D1) there isn’t such a thing as a bad loss.

If Northampton can split its next two, however, it should help bolster its chances at hosting a first round or preliminary state tournament game.  

Amherst is going to need some help from the aforementioned teams ahead of them. The ‘Canes need the below .500 teams to keep losing, but they also need to take care of business themselves. Amherst hosts Springfield International Charter on Friday, a team it beat just a few weeks ago. Then the Hurricanes travel to Putnam (No. 20 in D1) and Taconic (No. 1 in D3) for a tough pair of games before a home meeting with Minnechaug (No. 29 in D2). That game with the Falcons is a massive one for Amherst’s playoff hopes.

Trio of Division 4 girls teams jockeying in top 10

South Hadley (No. 5, 11-3), Frontier (No. 7, 13-2) and Easthampton (No. 9, 11-2) each sit comfortably inside the top 10 and have all guaranteed themselves a playoff berth by accumulating 10 wins.

The Tigers have won eight in a row, and their remaining games on the schedule consist of teams they’ve beaten already this year. South Hadley has a really good chance of holding strong for a top five seed, which would guarantee them a home game in the first and second rounds of the tournament.

Easthampton defeated Frontier when the two teams met as undefeated sides back on Jan. 8, and they’ll meet again in a huge Franklin County League North matchup on Thursday night in Easthampton.

Both the Eagles and Redhawks have difficult schedules the rest of the way, so this game could go a long way in determining which of these two teams ends up with a higher seed than the other.

Raiders, Falcons looking for playoff spots

In Division 4, the Hampshire girls basketball team checks in at No. 24 with a 6-7 record, while the Smith Academy girls sit one spot outside the top 32 at No. 33, also with a 6-7 mark.

The Raiders’ schedule the rest of the way is very difficult, but because of that, and the fact that they are safely inside the top 32, their chances of making the playoffs seem likely. Hampshire plays Wahconah (No. 17 in D4), Belchertown (D3 team), Monson (No. 13 in D5), Amherst (D2 team) and Granby (No. 24 in D5). If the Raiders can win against the Division 5 teams and pick up another victory along the way, they should be dancing.

The Falcons have a good shot at winning their next three games (playing against teams they’ve handled easily earlier this year), which would put them at nine wins. Not only should that ensure they don’t move down the rankings, it would also mean that getting one more win in the next four games after that automatically qualifies them for the tournament.

Both Hampshire and Smith Academy have a lot to play for, as does the rest of Hampshire County over the next couple of weeks.